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American University historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted the result of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, believes Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Lichtman explained his prediction in a video shared by the New York Times in which he said eight of his 13 'Keys to the White House' favored Harris.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” Lichtman said. “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
“At least that's my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote," he added.
Lichtman's "keys" are included below:
- Party mandate
- Contest
- Incumbency
- Third party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign/military failure
- Foreign/military success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
Licthman's formula has accurately predicted nearly every presidential election since 1984, with the exception being the 2000 election, where it forecasted a victory for then-Vice President Al Gore over eventual President George W. Bush.